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Cash Market Moves             06/21 11:39

   Time to Give Spring Wheat Its Last Rites?

   Spring wheat farmers in the upper Northern Plains have been battling drought 
all year and it has taken its toll on the new spring wheat crop.

Mary Kennedy
DTN Basis Analyst

   A few weeks ago, on June 1, I did a story titled "Is Spring Wheat on Life 
Support?" 
(https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/20
21/06/01/new-crop-spring-wheat-life-support) and just a few weeks later many 
farmers in the severe drought areas of the U.S. Northern Plains would agree 
that it's probably time to give the 2021 spring wheat crop last rites.

   "I would downgrade my spring wheat from a mangy coyote, back to a hairless 
Chihuahua that looks nervous and pees on your leg when you look at it wrong," 
said Paul Anderson, Coleharbor, North Dakota. "I have about 1,000 acres of 
spring wheat planted in McLean County, North Dakota. I sprayed it all for weeds 
recently and called my crop insurance agent to report a claim. We drove every 
field and crop insurance adjuster said the stands on the first 750 acres were 
too thin to even put up for hay. He remembered 1988 and said my fields looked 
worse than that."

   Anderson added, "About 750 acres was 6-inches tall with the flag leaf out 
and some heads poking out. The stands were very thin. No amount of rain or 
cooler temps will fix that."

   South of Anderson, near Turtle Lake, North Dakota, Alan Klain told me on 
June 16 the temperature hit 91 with 40 mile-per-hour winds. "We have received 
approximately 2.5 inches of rain since May 20, but evaporation and crop use of 
.40 per day has made that disappear quickly. We made the decision after 
scouting our early wheat to skip the $20 spray bill as it was very clean and 
its future yield isn't good. Like I said last time we talked for the first 
wheat story, it's a survival mode cutting expense and we only sprayed 50 acres 
out of 2,000-plus of wheat."

   Klain said, "Overall, it's headed for a crop insurance future. Corn and 
beans have some time, but they will be in the same boat if we don't get more 
rain before July 4."

   Peter Ness, Ness Farms, Sharon, North Dakota, said, "We ended up with 1.1 
inches of rain the second week of June; too little, too late. One half of a 
field is 10-12 inches tall, heading out; the other half the field is 6 inches 
trying to head out. The book is closed on the wheat crop; trying to manage some 
kochia that's about it. It'll be a sub 20-bushel per acre crop; maybe break 15 
bushels per acre."

   "We have gotten some rain; anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches in the last two 
weeks," said Bryan Kenner, Maddock, North Dakota. "I think it was too late for 
most of the wheat. I don't have a good guess what it will yield but I'm certain 
it will be the poorest wheat I've ever grown."

   Darrin Schmidt, eastern North Dakota, said his worst looking field in his 
area is very thin and should have been abandoned. "That field is 6 inches tall 
and starting to head. I know of one field of wheat that was killed and reseeded 
into soybeans. More should have been, but guessing farmers worried about 
moisture. One of our best-looking fields is heading out and is about 8-12 
inches tall," said Schmidt.

   "We've had some rain, but it was too late for the wheat crop here, said 
Kerry Baldwin, Hope, North Dakota. "This looks like the poorest wheat crop in 
over 40 years of farming for me. Some is heading at 6 inches tall."

   "In Lansford, North Dakota, we have caught a few nice rains to total about 3 
inches all spring and it has kept the wheat going," said Matt Undlin. "The hot 
temps last week took its toll and probably knocked off the top-end yield. But 
as we sit with a little more moisture, we could still have a good wheat crop. A 
few early planted spring wheat fields are showing heads at about 15 inches. 
Most the wheat is shading the ground and tillering now and over a foot. It is 
anyone's guess where final yield and qualify ends up."

   "Right here, in the Devils Lake area, I don't have a field that will average 
40 bushels per acre. I think mid-30s will be the top wheat I'll have. Worst 
fields will be close to 10-15 bushels per acre," said Jason Hanson agronomist, 
owner Rock and Roll Agronomy, LLC Webster, North Dakota. "If I was to estimate 
overall yield at this point, I'd say it will be 15- to 25-bushel average."

   Hanson said in some parts of the state the wheat crop is worth more as hay 
than wheat. "Farther west of here, it gets worse and there are too many fields 
that you can still see down the wheat rows for one-fourth mile in spots. Barley 
looks better. The wheat is so uneven, short in height due to pushed vegetative 
stages and dry during grain fill. Head size is down. Harvest is going to suck 
due to unevenness of the crop."

   NOT JUST NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT IN ROUGH SHAPE

   When I asked Tim Luken, manager of Oahe Grain, Onida, South Dakota, how 
spring wheat looked in his area, he said, "Not good. The wheat has a blueish 
green color, is short and is heading out. I'm guessing 5- to 25-bushels per 
acre." Luken said their winter wheat crop is "not super bad" and is guessing it 
may make 35- to 50-bushels per acre, depending on if it was on prevented 
planting acres and if the extreme temperatures stay away. "Our rains here have 
been hit and miss. On June 13, some had zero rain and others had up to 1 inch 
and temperatures have been 90 to 100 degrees."

   Ryan Wagner, Wagner Farms, Roslyn, South Dakota, said, "The recent rains did 
help and will allow us to hold on to what yield potential is left, but it's no 
doubt been hurt and the top end is gone. We need one or two more rains and some 
cooler weather. Hopefully we will get that in the next week, but for the most 
part, I'm fairly pessimistic on wheat yield."

   A farmer in eastern Montana told me his area was looking "surprisingly" 
good, but after the June 15, 30-plus mile-per-hour wind and 100-degree 
temperatures, the recrop spring wheat was showing the stress. He said, "It is 
pushing out the head and is not real thick and now has the blue tinge during 
the afternoon. Reality is setting in that it will be a long summer and a very 
short harvest season with extra bin space at the end."

   He did mention there is less spring wheat planted in his area with a lot 
more lentils, and acreage there is up 25% or more at the expense of spring 
wheat acres. "However, our 15-day outlook has 20% chance of .02 on June 20 and 
that's it, with a warming trend starting. So, I feel like the party may be over 
(definite top side of yields are gone) for the majority of the acres around 
here as they are recrop, but I don't know how the lentils will do under this 
stress."

   One last item he mentioned was grasshoppers. "Southern end of my county is 
spraying heavy for hoppers in crop and we will put it in our last acres of 
wheat as well. Have heard how they are taking the blossoms off lentils, which 
is what they do, as well as all the normal stuff to wheat and grass. Our yards 
and ditches are thick with little ones getting bigger. They may be the big 
winner this year," he said.

   "This year's wheat is shaping up to be the worse crop I have had in 41 
years, said Tim Dufault in Crookston, North Dakota. "Last fall was dry and 
hardly any snow all winter. It's dry; then, it got hot. So far, in June, we 
have had six days over 90 degrees and our first 100-degree day in over 30 
years. The heat is probably doing as much damage to the wheat as the drought. 
Wheat has headed out about two weeks early. Tillers and lower leaves have 
burned off. Most of my wheat is between 12 and 18 inches tall and headed out."

   Dufault reported that on Sunday, June 20, the eastern part of the spring 
wheat belt received up to 1.2 inches of rain, with most areas under 1 inch. "My 
farm had .63 inch, which was not enough to turn around this crop. Since April 
1, I have received just 3.35 inches. Also, we have more heat coming this week."

   Dufault added that crop consultants are finding grasshoppers and army worms 
now. "I had sold about 12 bushels per acre of the 2021 crop before planting. I 
don't dare sell anymore. I might not harvest that much."

   "Most farmers have accepted the fact that it's junk and plan for next year," 
Hanson said about the 2021 spring wheat crop. "Worst crop I've seen since 1989."

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn




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