DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/23 10:52
Grain Futures Mixed Midday Wednesday
Corn is 1 cent to 2 cents higher up front, 6 cents to 8 cents lower on new
crop, soybeans are 3 cents to 5 cents lower, and wheat is 4 cents to 19 cents
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 25. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 6 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are firmer with
crude up .80. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs the downside leader. Precious
metals are firmer with gold up $10.
Corn trade is 1 cent to 2 cents higher on July, with new crop 6 cents to 8
cents lower with spreads firming and trade fading from the overnight highs with
rains in parts of Iowa and less short-term threats in the forecast. Ethanol
margins are seeing support from corn values holding the lower end of the range
with the weekly report showing production up 23,000 barrels per day (bpd), with
stocks 518,000 barrels higher, with a big gasoline draw. Brazil weather looks
mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late
rains while U.S. weather be watched for heat in the extended forecast while the
Northwest part of the belt continues to miss the rains the rest of the belt has
seen. Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near term with more attention
going to new crop as well as feed wheat becoming available. On the July
contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.67 failing to hold above on
tests, with the lower Bollinger band at $6.32 as support.
Soybeans are 3 cents to 5 cents lower with slightly weaker spreads, and meal
remaining an anchor on values even as soy oil firms and new-crop sales of
330,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 lower and oil is
$1 to $1.20 higher. The weather pattern should allow for better short-term
development with rains needed to boost double-crop areas during planting as
wheat comes off. South America should continue to see shipping progress short
term, with U.S. basis returning to flat short term with bids rolling to the
back months in many locations. On the July soybean chart support is the lower
Bollinger Band at $13.48 as trade rebounds with the $14.50 area that was
pre-washout support the next round up as resistance.
Wheat trade is 4 cents to 19 cents higher with trade being led by spring
wheat as the crop declines with winter wheat pushing deeper into harvest with
action fading on KC and Chicago at midday. The dollar is weaker, pulling back
slightly from the higher end of the range but not able to slide through
support. Harvest should continue to pick up steam with combines starting to
roll north of I70. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be
watched as well with little fresh news on the front with short-term stress in
the Black Sea area possible. KC has narrowed back to a 53-cent discount,
sharply off the recent highs, with Minneapolis at a 1.45-cent premium, getting
back to the highs. Kansas City July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at
$6.19 with support at the lower Bollinger band at $5.88.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.