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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/17 10:51

   Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Lower

   Corn futures are 3 to 8 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 9 
to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 25 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 54 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 70 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
firmer with crude.55 higher and natural gas up .32. Livestock trade is mixed. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up 5.60.


   Corn futures are 3 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade fading slightly off 
the fresh highs with little fresh bullish news to extend recent strength along 
with weaker spread action. The export wire has been quiet this week. Any 
rebound in prices is likely to limit that again in the short term while basis 
remains flat. The ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by input costs 
with soft driving demand and still burdensome stocks short term. The second 
crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with drier weather in much of 
Brazil. U.S. weather remains challenging for many in the short term with cooler 
weather to the north limiting drying. Weekly Crop Progress showed 49% planted 
versus 67% on average, with emergence at 14% versus 32% on average, mostly in 
line with trade expectations. On the July contract chart, we have support at 
the 20-day moving average at $7.96, which we pushed through late in the session 
Monday with the highs at $8.24 1/2 above that.


   Soybean futures are 9 to 12 cents higher with the momentum to the upside 
slowing again as products are unable to extend recent gains as meal falters 
again and there is little fresh soybean-specific news out there. Meal is $3.00 
to $4.00 lower and oil is 80 to 100 points higher. South America is moving 
toward post-harvest footing at this point. U.S. crop progress showed 30% 
planted versus 39% on average with 9% emerged versus 12% on average. New-crop 
November is gaining slightly against corn this morning, with time running short 
to hold acres. The export wire was quiet again Tuesday. On the July soybean 
chart, we are just above the 20-day moving average at $16.54 with the $17.00 
area as the next level of resistance, and further support at the lower 
Bollinger band at $15.79.


   Wheat futures are 13 to 25 cents higher at midday with Chicago action 
leading volatile trade so far with early gains turning to broad losses 
overnight before trade worked back higher from a test of the $13.00 area. The 
dollar has faded just off the top of the range again. KC wheat is back to a 
29-cent discount to Minneapolis in firmer action, and at a 100-cent premium to 
Chicago, just off the highs. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 
conditions fading 2% to 27% good to excellent, with 41% poor to very poor, and 
48% headed versus 53% on average, while spring wheat was 39% planted versus 67% 
on average, and 16% emerged versus 30% on average. The KC July chart has 
resistance at the fresh high at $13.79, with support the upper Bollinger Band 
at $13.24 with the open gap below the market at $12.92.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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