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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/26 10:56

   Grains in the Red Midday Friday

   Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 11 to 13 cents lower and wheat is 8 
to 15 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 204 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.65 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are 
weaker with crude down $1.10. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down $56.00.


   Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday Friday with broad weakness in 
commodities Friday morning following the pullback on Thursday. Ethanol 
production should continue to rebound with the trade looking for better margins 
into the second quarter as spring driving season commences. Trade will continue 
to look for further export-sale confirmations with the daily wire remaining 
quiet. Shipping pace should recover further short term and basis should remain 
sideways short term as May becomes the front month. Double crop planting in 
Brazil is well underway as well, but behind the usual pace. On the May 
contract, support is the 20-day at $5.47, which we are below at midday, with 
the lower Bollinger band at $5.34 as support.


   Soybeans is 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with follow-through selling after 
the poor finish Thursday and mixed spread action. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower 
and oil is 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent lower. Basis will likely remain flat at 
strong levels with slower movement as the export program winds down and a 
bigger focus is on crush margins. Brazil should catch rains short term for most 
areas, with harvest underway but behind the usual pace, and the export 
shipments picking up steam. Argentina action is trending warmer and drier over 
the next few days. The May chart has resistance at the fresh high at $14.45 
3/4, with support the 20-day at $13.80.


   Wheat trade is 8 to 15 cents lower with spring wheat holding up the best at 
midday as trade is fading back to the middle of the recent range. The dollar 
surged back past 90 points on the index at midday, back to the middle of the 
range. The Plains should see warmer weather, bringing the crop closer to 
exiting dormancy soon with some dry pockets persisting. KC is at 28-cent 
discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is at 23-cent discount with mixed action so 
far. KC May chart support is the 20-day at $6.36, which we are testing at 
midday, with resistance the fresh high at $6.62.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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